ERCOT report predicts higher generation reserves for Texas over the next five years
The December Capacity Demand and Reserves (CDR) report, released this week by the Electric Reliability Council of Texas (ERCOT), notes that new generation resources are being quickly added to the region, resulting in bolstered planning reserves for the next five years.
A major contributor to this growth is utility-scale solar. These account for 3,039 MW of resources predicted to be available as of summer 2021, along with the addition of 816 MW of gas-fired and 1,765 MW of wind resources. Another 9,273 MW of summer-rated solar capacity should be added by June 2022.
This has led to a planning reserve margin of 15.5 percent for next summer and between 25-27 percent from 2022 to 2025. However, the 2021 figure is actually down 1.8 percent due to delays and cancellations that have accrued since May.
“In 2018 and 2019, ERCOT experienced historically-low planning reserve margins due to plant retirements,” ERCOT President and CEO Bill Magness said. “These business cycles of retirements and new investments are expected in the ERCOT market, and it is ERCOT’s job to maintain reliable electric service through the various changing conditions.”
These figures could grow further beginning in June 2021, when ERCOT begins to incorporate demand served by Lubbock Power and Light. However, even beyond utility-scale projects, ERCOT reports growth among the solar sector, so much so that it has begun including a separate rooftop solar PV forecast in its reports. So far, 1,917 MW of installed capacity have been approved since May, and a total of 12,525 MW have become eligible for inclusion in the CDR.
The battery side of operations is moving at a slower pace. Presently, the report notes, only a small number of such facilities exist on the ERCOT system. Yet it is hopeful this will change in the future, as several battery projects are currently in the interconnection queue — and their operational data will be studied to assess their contributions to capacity in future reports.
