EIA report: Fossil fuel consumption to dip below 80 percent for first time in a century

Reference case projections from the U.S. Energy Information Administration’s (EIA) Annual Energy Outlook 2016 predict that fossil fuel consumption will dip below 80 percent of total U.S. energy consumption during the next 25 years, for the first time in more than a century.

The EIA predicted that petroleum consumption would remain fairly constant through 2040, with increases in population and travel counterbalanced by improvements to fuel economy. Natural gas consumption is projected to continue to increase at approximately the same pace as the early 2000s, driven particularly by increased usage in the industrial and electric power sectors. Coal, meanwhile, is expected to see a sharp drop in consumption, continuing the downward trend that was highlighted in 2015, when coal consumption plummeted 13 percent – more than any fossil fuel in the past 50 years.

Increased development of solar and wind electricity has brought renewable energy consumption to nearly 10 percent — its highest share of total consumption since the 1930s. Liquid biofuels have contributed to the increased trend experienced by renewables in recent years, although the EIA predict only slight changes to biomass consumption by 2040, owing to a decreased use of wood products.

Nuclear and hydroelectric are also expected to change little over the next 25 years, and are projected to be quickly surpassed by wind and solar consumption.