NREL analyzes impact of future where electricity powers greater part of US economy
The United States is becoming more electrified, and the National Renewable Energy Laboratory (NREL) is looking at the impacts of shifting non-electric sources of energy to electricity at the point of final consumption.
NREL’s multi-year “Electrification Futures Study: A Technical Evaluation of the Impacts of an Electrified U.S. Energy System” studied contiguous U.S. energy systems, including transportation, residential and commercial buildings, and industry. Their focus for the latest version of the report examines what it will look like at 2050, as well as different potential transition models.
“By exploring the impact of electrification on how much, when and where electricity is used, the demand-side scenarios presented here lay the foundation for future reports on the U.S. power system evolution and operations, as well as key costs and impacts of electrification,” said NREL’s Trieu Mai, principal investigator for the Electrification Futures Study (EFS).
The report found that widespread electrification could increase electricity use to 38 percent of energy consumption in a high adoption scenario, with up to 1.6 percent compound annual growth rates.
There has been a slowing in recent electricity demand growth due to factors like the recession and advancements in energy technology. But at the same time, “the U.S. population has grown, the economy has grown,” Mai explained during a webinar on July 26 discussing the report. “End use services have certainly grown in the ways that we can measure, such as vehicle miles traveled, building square footage, and industrial production, among other things.”
“Development of advanced electric technologies has driven adoption in key sectors, especially in vehicles, but also for businesses and homes,” Mai added. “Local policies and economic incentives support electrification to reduce emissions, improve air quality, and increase energy security.”
Utilities have been watching to see if electrification has the potential to increase sales and revenues.
Transportation
Electric currently provides less than 1 percent of total transportation needs, even though more than 25 percent of primary energy consumption is from transportation. Because of this, significant opportunities exist.
“Electric technologies tend to be more capital intensive than other conventional technologies, which tend to be more fuel intensive,” Mai explained.
According to Paige Jadun, an NREL researcher, light-duty plug-in electric cars and trucks could have the largest impact, but electric freight trucks also have many opportunities — even if it will be more challenging.
The largest challenge affecting electric freight trucks is a need for long-haul batteries. But if the sector can look at the opportunities for short-range transportation, it could be an important shift.
The electrification of transit buses are also very promising, largely because of the time buses are allowed for charging each day.
“While transit buses make up a smaller portion of energy use, these vehicles are promising candidates for electrification,” said Jadun. “Their scheduled operation can more easily include time for vehicle charging and they can also take advantage of some of the noise, pollution and other benefits provided by electric vehicles.”
The researchers predict that by 2050, there will be up to 240 million light-duty plug-in EVs on the road, 7 million medium and heavy-duty plug-in trucks, and 80,000 battery electric transit buses. There will also be 138,000 DCFC stations (with 447,000 plugs), as well as 10 million non-residential L2 plugs for light duty.
In the highest adoption scenario, 76 percent of vehicle miles traveled in 2050 will be from electricity.
The factors that will affect the change will include battery costs, consumer preference, utility-controlled charging, and vehicle to grid services.
Residential & commercial building
“Unlike the transportation sector where electricity provides a very, very small share of the total energy use, the building sector already relies extensively on electricity,” said NREL’s Jeffrey Logan. “In the residential building sector for example, electricity provides over 40 percent of final energy demand. And in the commercial sector, electricity provides over 50 percent of electricity demand.”
Within the building sector, space heating and water heating are the largest end use applications that do not yet rely on electricity. Natural gas, fuel, and propane are main sources of heating in both residential and commercial building.
Cooking is also an important factor in residential building, as gas cooking has gained mass popularity in recent years. The researchers looked at gas cooking and predict the trend will shift back to electric cooking.
Under the high adoption scenario, the researchers expect electric to provide 61 percent of space heating, 52 percent of water heating, and 94 percent of cooking services by 2050.
This “would require dramatic change in appliance manufacturing and installations,” according to Logan, which includes 170 million heat pumps in service by 2050.
Load shapes have the potential to change as well, largely because of widespread adoption of technology like electric heat pump and water heaters.
Electric utilities will have to re-think their planning because of a shift in peak demand timing, which will also affect grid operations, reliability assessments, and electricity markets. These shifts will most likely affect the Northeast and Midwest.
Industrial sector
The industrial sector is the highest-use industry, and yet it uses less electricity (as a percentage) than the others. For the sector, the report focused on the productivity benefits.
According to Colin McMillan with NREL, industrial electrification is more muted compared to other sectors, where materials and labor are some of their higher costs — but those productivity benefits aren’t always incorporated into decision-making processes.
According to McMillan, if long equipment lifetimes can be affected, it could help owners make other profit-driven decisions. Electro-technologies could offer one of the most important opportunities for the industrial sector.
The most significant growth for electro-technologies with productivity benefits include improved product quality, higher throughput, and reduced scrap and labor costs.
In the NREL high scenario, electro-technologies would provide 63 percent of curing needs, 32 percent of drying services, and 56 percent of other process heating.
The researchers will be looking more at these issues in the future, to see how the different sectors of the industry operate and what it would take to make different decisions about electricity.
While NREL looked at each industry individually, it also looked at how widespread changes across industry would change electricity demand.
“Electric space heating more significantly changes the timing and magnitude of peak demand,” said Mai. “Most of the states in the country are summer peaking system except in the Pacific Northwest.”
NREL found that electricity share of final energy could double between 2016 and 2050. Domestically, fuel reductions by 2050 would be 74 percent for gas, 35 percent for diesel, and 37 percent for natural gas. This would increase opportunities for fuel use for power generation and fuel exports.
Electric utilities will have to re-think their planning because of the shift in peak demand timing, which will also affect grid operations, reliability assessments, and electricity markets. These shifts will most likely affect the Northeast and Midwest.
Energy consumption would see large shifts with the electrification of the country, as well as reducing usage of fossil fuels, and the changes could lower total energy consumption by 13 to 21 percent. Future EFS reports will focus on the potential consequences to fossil fuels.
NREL will be releasing a new demand-side model from its report in the coming weeks.
