Energy Futures Initiative report sets deep-decarbonization goals to be met by midcentury, Moniz says
Earth is in a climate crisis and global efforts are falling short in finding solutions, said Ernest J. Moniz, president and CEO of Energy Futures Initiative (EFI), during a July 31 speech at the U.S. Chamber of Commerce’s Global Energy Institute #Energy Innovates: All In Summit.
The post-Paris Climate Agreement policies of the world’s largest carbon emitters — the United States, China and the European Union — currently are not aligned with the agreement’s target of limiting the planet’s temperature increases to 2 degrees Celsius (C) by midcentury, according to the just-released EFI report, The Green Real Deal: A Framework for Achieving a Deeply Decarbonized Economy.
“In fact, after declines in the previous three years, U.S. greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions rose in 2018 at a historically high rate,” according to the report, which notes that GHG emissions must approach zero by the second half of the 21st century “to avoid the worst consequences of climate change and to limit global warming to 2°C or lower.”
Meeting this level of emission reductions requires steep reductions in energy-related CO2 emissions, a process frequently referred to as “deep decarbonization” — the thrust of EFI’s report, which proposes key principles and strategies for achieving deep decarbonization by midcentury.
“What we’re putting out today is a much more extensive framework for what we believe are the elements for addressing the Green Real Deal,” said Moniz, who served as U.S. Energy Secretary from 2013-2017. “What we think is critical is if we are going to achieve deep decarbonization in the mid-century timeframe — earlier would be nice, but midcentury is what we’re thinking about as a target — it has to be a very pragmatic program; it has to be data-driven, science-based and analytically supported.”
The Green Real Deal starts from five mission principles that are designed to “provide a framework for accelerating deep decarbonization of energy systems by midcentury in ways that minimize costs, maximize opportunities, and promote social equity,” according to Moniz.
The mission principles are:
1.) Technology, business model, and policy innovations are essential for meeting deep decarbonization targets by midcentury and must be developed to meet the challenges of deep decarbonization, including the rising marginal costs of GHG abatement.
2.) Social equity is essential for success. The transformation of energy systems also must improve lives, increase public acceptance of the widespread change required to address the climate challenge, and provide meaningful, well-paying jobs. “We think it’s the right thing to do, but in addition to that, frankly without it, there will just be additional political headwinds in terms of trying to get to low carbon as fast as one can,” Moniz told summit attendees.
3.) Broad and inclusive political coalitions must be built. Solutions for addressing the climate challenge cut across all portions of the economy and require the participation of businesses, consumers, governments and advocacy groups. Finding common cause, proactively addressing conflict, and ensuring all members of society benefit from a transformation to a low-carbon economy will put wind in the sails of meaningful action. Moniz said that the Green Real Deal plan will foster such coalitions. “We are seeing the elements of coalitions coming together now … but it’s not going to mean too much unless we start walking the talk,” he said, adding that such coalitions also could prove illusive if they don’t represent a wide range of opinions and input.
4.) All GHG-emitting sectors must be addressed in climate solutions. Much of the academic and policy carbon abatement work thus far has focused on the electricity sector, which according to the EFI report is 27 percent of U.S. emissions and is arguably the easiest to decarbonize. Sectoral analyses — electricity, transportation, industries, buildings and agriculture — all will be central to identifying solutions and advancing innovation. “The reality is, in the United States, the electricity sector is 27 percent of the emissions, and we’ve got to start thinking about the other 73 percent just as hard,” said Moniz.
5.) Optionality and flexibility are needed for technologies, policies and regions of the country. For instance, Moniz said that multiple clean-energy technology options are needed for each sector of the economy and region of the country, thereby requiring a variety of technology and policy options in the energy space.
The Green Real Deal also is organized around eight key elements, such as the design and deployment of large-scale carbon management systems; supporting the workforce for a clean energy future; investing in climate-resilient and innovative energy infrastructure; and supporting sustainable and secure clean energy supply chains.
Moniz said these elements together will provide the foundation for moving forward with the plan.
Separately, and related to the summit’s agenda, the EFI element calling for an Innovation Portfolio is “very central,” Moniz said.
The Green Real Deal builds on the Paris Climate Agreement and the commitments of a range of subnational players dedicated to deep decarbonization, according to the report, which points out that Paris targets roughly translate to an 80 percent reduction by midcentury and typically a 30 percent reduction by 2030 (from a 1990 level).
“Advances in science and observed environmental changes in the short time since Paris have, however, caused a reevaluation of the stringency of the targets,” according to the EFI report. “A 40 percent economy-wide emissions reduction target by 2030 and net zero greenhouse gas emissions by 2050 are increasingly seen as the needed objectives.
“Operationally, this means that multiple pathways to economy-wide decarbonization must all be implemented while breakthrough innovation success will be needed at scale by midcentury,” the report says.
During his summit speech, Moniz said that the Green Real Deal is designed with an emphasis on innovation, optionality and flexibility to respond to a new and better understanding of the science.
But he also said that, “the reality is, in a decade, we are not going to see a major new breakthrough innovation that can get out there in scale by 2030. So in terms of meeting the 2030 goal, it’s going to be around the technologies we see but the innovation agenda remains critical certainly for the kind of cost reduction that will be critical to moving forward.”
The EFI report concludes that each of the five principles and eight elements of the Green Real Deal is critical for translating climate mitigation ambitions into actions.
“However, time is not on our side,” according to the report. “Meaningful progress — that must be accountable to current and future generations — will require urgent, concerted efforts across policy and politics, business, science and technology, providers and consumers, and other stakeholders. In short, meaningful progress requires a Green Real Deal.”
In short, Moniz summarized, the Green Real Deal says there is no chance of meeting a net zero goal by midcentury “without everyone on deck and without breakthrough large at-scale negative carbon technologies. And we don’t have anything today that credibly fits that bill. We’ve got a lot to do.”
EFI also has another report coming out in the fall on carbon direct removal as a key issue, an example of what Moniz called another “breakthrough innovation that will be critical.”
