EIA expects natural gas to hold lead as source for electricity generation through 2019

With the total share of electricity generated by natural gas-fired power plants expected to average 33 percent in 2018 and 34 percent in 2019, the U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) projects that natural gas will hold its lead as the top supplier of electricity in the United States over the next two years.

EIA’s Short-Term Energy Outlook for January also projects that coal’s share of electricity generation will to decline over the next two years. Coal’s market share will hold steady at 30 percent in 2018 before dropping to 28 percent in 2019, according to EIA projections.

The cost of natural gas delivered to electric generators is expected to decline 2 percent this year, while the cost of delivered coal is expected to climb 5 percent, according to EIA.

“The mix of energy sources used for producing electricity generation continues to shift in response to changes in fuel costs and the development of renewable energy technologies,” EIA stated. “Since 2015, the cost of natural gas delivered to electric generators has generally averaged $3.50 per million British thermal units or less, and it is expected to remain near this level through 2019.”

EIA also notes that new natural gas-fired power plants will add 20 gigawatts (GW) of capacity in 2018, the largest increase in natural gas capacity in a single year since 2004. At the same time, power plants generating 13 GW of coal-fired capacity are scheduled to be retired in 2018.

Non-hydroelectric sources of renewable energy are also expected to maintain recent electricity generation gains. Non-hydro renewables will account for more than 10 percent of the average annual share of total utility generation for the first time next year, according to EIA projections.