Electricity generation from wind expected to surpass hydro in 2019

The U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) expects electricity generation from wind to surpass that of hydropower in 2019, according to its most recent Short-Term Energy Outlook.

Because few new hydropower plants are expected to come online in the two years, EIA’s forecasts for hydroelectric generation forecasts are mostly based on projections of water runoff. Hydro provided 7.4 percent of total utility-scale generation in 2017, but EIA expects hydro generation to be slightly lower at 6.5 percent of total utility-scale generation in 2018 and 6.6 percent in 2019.

On the other hand, EIA expects that wind capacity will increase by 8.3 gigawatts (GW) in 2018 and 8.0 GW in 2019, based on the organization’s most recent Preliminary Monthly Electric Generator Inventory survey. EIA projects that wind will provide 6.4 percent of total utility-scale electricity generation in the United States in 2018 and 6.9 percent in 2019. Wind provided 6.3 percent in 2017.

Hydro and wind generation both follow seasonal patterns. Hydro generation is usually highest in the spring when precipitation and melting snowpack increase water runoff. Wind generation is typically highest in the spring and fall due to the capacity-weighted mix of seasonal patterns in wind across the country. Hydro typically has slightly higher annual capacity factors averaging 38 percent in 2016 compared with 35 percent for wind.