EIA anticipates U.S. will become net energy exporter by 2022
Driven by modest energy consumption and continued development, the Energy Information Agency (EIA) Annual Energy Outlook 2018 forecasts that the United States will become a net energy exporter by 2022.
The United States has been a net energy importer since 1953, but the reference case used for the Annual Energy Outlook 2018 indicates that continued development of shale, tight oil and natural gas, coupled with modest energy demand, will make the United States a net energy exporter no later than 2022.
The reference case only considers existing laws and policies and is not a projection of the future — but six sensitivity cases make predictive assumptions about the market, policies, technology, and uncertainties. Sensitivity cases assuming more energy production or higher prices indicate that the U.S. could become a net energy export before 2022.
“In the High Oil and Gas Resource and Technology case, favorable geology and technological developments increase oil and natural gas supply, leading to higher energy exports,” EIA stated. “In the High Oil Price case, before 2040, economic conditions are more favorable for oil producers, supporting higher levels of exports and lower domestic consumption than in the Reference case. Exports decline after 2040 in this sensitivity case as a result of the lack of substantial improvements in technology.”
The Annual Energy Outlook found that enhancements in energy efficiency could continue to curb energy demand, which consumption expected to grow 0.4 percent and the population expected to grow 0.6 percent per year through 2050. Additionally, the reference case indicates that all new electricity generation will be fueled by natural gas and renewable energy after 2022.
The reference case also shows shale and natural gas resources continuing to increase through 2050, with crude oil and petroleum products tapering off by the end of the project period.
