Projections maintain coal demand to remain flat

The Energy Information Administration is projecting coal domestic demand and exports will remain flat through 2050.

Officials said the Annual Energy Outlook 2018 (AEO2018) Reference points to coal disposition for the next three decades averaging 750 million short tons per year, down from the peak of nearly 1.2 billion tons in 2008 – noting coal demand in the power sector is sensitive to changes in the price of natural gas and two sensitivity cases with higher or lower natural gas prices show the effects of the relationship.

Although no new coal-fired power generation capacity is built in the AEO2018 Reference case, officials said, coal-fired electricity generation is expected to remain relatively flat.

Electricity generation from coal is now second to natural gas, which surpassed coal as the leading source of U.S. electricity generation in 2016.

In the AEO2018 Reference case, despite relatively few retirements and higher utilization, coal’s share of total electricity generation declined from 31 percent in 2017 to 22 percent in 2050, as natural gas and renewable generation sources increased their generation shares.

In 2017, net exports of coal totaled 89 million short tons, making up 11 percent of U.S. coal disposition while the remaining 7 percent of coal disposition is consumed for commercial, institutional and industrial uses.