EIA reports autonomous vehicle use could increase energy consumption, travel

The U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) focused primarily on transportation energy in its most recent Annual Energy Outlook, determining that switching to autonomous vehicles could increase the nation’s energy consumption and increase travel rates.

The energy consumption is dependent on how autonomous vehicles end up being powered, EIA stated, but increased rates is a real potential for light-duty vehicle travel overall. The supposition is based on two sensitivity cases undertaken in the report, wherein the EIA assumed more widespread use of autonomous vehicles, driven more miles per year than non-autonomous vehicles. Travel for light-duty vehicles increased by 14 percent by 2050 for these cases, which were based on greater adoption of battery electric vehicles and hybrid electric, respectively, though conventional gas engines would remain the most prominent.

Both were also based on U.S. sales of autonomous vehicles increase from 1 percent to 31 percent in the same time frame.

For the report’s reference case, however, autonomous vehicles were still overwhelmingly powered by conventional gas and internal combustion engines. That case offered a 4 percent lower amount of energy consumption than either of the two sensitivity cases.

Notably, however, no matter which of the case end up becoming America’s truth, the EIA reports energy demand lower than in 2017, thanks to growing average fuel economy and increased greenhouse gas emissions standards in the industry, if not government requirements. Overall, the EIA expects travel via light-duty vehicles to reach 3.3 trillion miles — nearly 20 percent higher than the 2017 level.