PJM Interconnection fuel security analysis finds system is reliable
PJM Interconnection released yesterday a summary of its study examining fuel supply, which found that the system is reliable and can withstand extended periods of highly stressed conditions.
PJM serves 65 million people in 13 states and the District of Columbia. The fuel security study is part of a larger resilience initiative.
“The findings underscore that PJM is reliable today. But in this study we are also looking into the future, to stress-test our system to reveal future vulnerabilities and make sure we are resilient under many different conditions,” Andrew L. Ott, president and CEO of PJM, said.
The study involved more than 300 different scenarios that could occur from 2023 into the future. Testing conditions ranged from typical winter operations to extreme but reasonably plausible scenarios.
The analysis found that PJM’s system can operate reliably in a sustained period of cold weather with typical customer demand. The stress test also identified stress points at which conditions begin to result in material levels of generation unavailability and load shedding.
“We found that in extreme scenarios, the more the grid was stressed, the more important fuel supply characteristics, location of the fuel supply disruption and demand response became,” Michael Bryson, vice president of operations, said. “We believe that some changes to the system in the future – both market-based and operational – are warranted. As with any stress test, there are extreme cases, and building to mitigate or eliminate risk must be balanced with costs.”
The study identifies key variables to the security of the grid’s fuel supply, including the availability of non-firm gas service, the ability of the fuel-oil delivery system to replenish oil supplies, physical breaks on the pipeline system, customer demand, generator retirements and replacements and the use of operating procedures to conserve fuel during peak winter conditions.
PJM noted that it will work with stakeholders to examine the findings and explore market-based solutions to address long-term fuel supply security concerns. PJM expects to present a problem statement to stakeholders in early 2019 and is targeting any potential market rule changes for filing with FERC in early 2020. PJM also said that it urges national consideration of fuel security issues through the resilience docket opened by FERC. It noted that it will continue to work with the gas pipeline industry and fuel-oil and fuel-oil-transportation industries on these issues.
