EIA predicts renewables to dominate generation growth in short-term

A recent report from the U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) predicts that renewable energy will grow at the fastest rate of all energy sources in the United States over the next two years.

The report expects solar to grow by 10 percent during the coming year, followed by another 17 percent growth in 2020, with wind generation keeping close pace at 12 percent and 14 percent, respectively. Renewable generation other than hydropower should increase by 3 percent total over the next two years. This is a noted contrast to total U.S. generation, which the EIA expected to fall by 2 percent this year and see little growth the following year.

This growth in the face of competitive decline comes from new, anticipated generating capacity — 11 gigawatts (GW) of wind capacity and 4 GW of solar capacity this year, along with 8 GW of wind and 6 GW of solar in 2020. This year’s expansion marks wind energy’s largest capacity installation since 2012. It also puts wind on track to hit a 9 percent share of total U.S. generation in 2020, against solar’s 2 percent. Solar is also seeing slight growth, though, with small-scale solar generating capacity expected to grow as much as 9 GW over the next two years.

By contrast, coal and natural gas combined still will provide up to 61 percent of U.S. generation in 2020, though coal’s share continues to plummet.

All estimations and predictions here stem from the EIA’s January 2019 Short-Term Energy Outlook.