New York State finalizes solar forecasting project
The New York Power Authority (NYPA) is spearheading a $1.85 solar forecasting project designed to predict solar energy generation.
The project, which is in its final phase, is part of an effort to improve electric grid reliability and economic efficiency of power systems.
“Fully integrating solar power into power system operations will be key in New York State’s transition to renewable energy, but it can be challenging to predict how much energy will be generated on any given day,” Alan Ettlinger, NYPA’s director of research, technology development and innovation, said. “NYPA is working with research partners to develop the best technologies to improve forecasting of solar energy output so we can learn how to better maintain grid reliability and ultimately reduce operating costs.”
High-definition digital cameras, along with advanced weather modeling and other sources of data, are used to develop prediction models that can anticipate output from both large solar generating facilities and smaller, roof-top, distributed solar resources. The forecasts are based in part on the movement of clouds to estimate their impact on solar generation. The data can then be used to forecast changes in solar generation.
“Ensuring that renewable energy resources are effectively integrated to the electric grid will help achieve Governor Cuomo’s ambitious clean energy and climate goals for the benefit of all New Yorkers. Developing systems that improve grid reliability and resiliency allow faster integration of renewables and advance the use of cleaner, greener energy statewide,” Dave Crudele, program manager, Smart Grid Systems and Distributed Energy Integration, New York State Energy Research and Development Authority (NYSERDA), said.
The new solar forecasting network is located in Albany, where expert field engineers will install solar forecasting equipment at the University at Albany, several Albany firehouses, NYSERDA’s headquarters and State Department of Transportation sites, the Albany airport and two additional locations that are to be determined.
The project builds on prior research by the National Center for Atmospheric Research (NCAR) team, including Brookhaven National Laboratory (BNL), located in Upton, NY. NCAR developed a set of weather prediction models that utilize recent solar irradiance and weather information to predict the next one to three hours of solar irradiance at a location. Also, BNL developed a sky imager system to determine the movement of clouds and their impact on solar generation within the hour. In this next phase, BNL will create a model that focuses on a very-short-range forecast.
“In addition to expanding the ground-based imager network to the upstate region, we will continue to test and evaluate our solar forecast predictions over a full year to improve confidence in system effectiveness through a full range of seasonal variability,” Paul Kalb, deputy chair of BNL’s Environmental and Climate Science Department, said.
More accurate solar generation forecasting will help address reliability concerns related to the integration of variable renewable resources like solar power, Aidan Tuohy, a principle project manager for the Electric Power Research Institute’s (EPRI) Grid Operations and Planning group, said. It will provide utility operators with information to efficiently plan and use solar generation more cost-effectively.
