EIA Winter Fuels Outlook predicts slightly lower heating bills this year

After several years of steadily increasing heating costs in the United States, the Energy Information Administration (EIA) Winter Fuels Outlook is predicting a season of relief at last.

For most, the change will be modest, with changes varying by heating source. For users of electricity and natural gas, which make up the majority of households in the nation, price shifts will be slight at best. The real change will come for households that use heating oil, which are likely to spend four percent less this winter, and those who use propane, who should spend around 15 percent less. All of this is thanks to current fuel prices, consumption forecasts and weather forecasts from the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration.

There is one outlier in all this, however, and that’s the South.

Contrary to everything else happening in the country, the South’s natural gas bills are likely to rise by a notable four percent. The EIA blames this on higher regional natural gas prices.

Currently, the EIA predicts around 3,635 heating degree days this winter — figures born of days when temperature differences can be contrasted to a base of 65 degrees. What this means, practically speaking, is that the U.S. is likely to see warmer days than the average of the last 10 winters.

Who the heating changes affect most vary, region to region. Heating oil, for example, is most common in the Northeast and is, in fact, the most prevalent primary heating fuel in four states there. While propane is used throughout the Midwest, it is nowhere the most prevalent source. Natural gas is the most common fuel in 29 states and the District of Columbia. Electricity tends to be the southern fare of choice.

Natural gas is in a good position. Its storage has rebounded in the last year, and by the end of the coming injection season, which begins April 1 and ends in October, the EIA expects working inventories for the lower 48 states to be two percent higher than the previous five-year average. Heating oil, on the other hand, is experiencing a five year average 26 percent lower.