EIA revises crude oil production forecast
Citing updates to its published historical data and crude oil price forecast, the Energy Information Administration (EIA) has revised its crude oil production forecast for this year and 2020.
The EIA’s November 2019 Short-Term Energy Outlook (STEO) increased its forecast of crude oil production in 2019 by 30,000 barrels per day (b/d) from the October STEO while increasing its 2020 crude oil production forecast by 119,000 b/d compared with the October STEO.
The EIA also pointed to historical production in the Lower 48 states of about 90,000 b/d for August, based on most recent monthly crude oil production survey data; a higher initial production forecast for future wells that will be drilled in the Texas Permian region through 2020; and a slightly higher crude oil price forecast for the November 2019–January 2020 time period than in the October STEO.
The EIA is now forecasting crude oil production will increase to 12.3 million b/d in 2019 from 11.0 million b/d in 2018, acknowledging output in the Permian region serves as the primary driver of the forecasted crude oil production growth. EIA forecasts Permian production will grow by 915,000 b/d in 2019 and by 809,000 b/d in 2020.
