Energy resources expected to meet or exceed demand this winter
Energy resources for the upcoming winter season meet or exceed recommended levels in the U.S. and Canada, reported the North American Electric Reliability Corp. in its 2019–2020 Winter Reliability Assessment.
However, risks remain in the Northeast and Midwest related to the potential for extreme and prolonged cold weather.
The assessment looks at generation resources and transmission system adequacy for projected winter peak demands. This year’s estimate found that there is generally an adequate supply of resources for meeting winter peak demand. The most significant risk is the stress on bulk power system resources that can accompany extreme winter weather. Potential natural gas delivery constraints, wind generation forecasting errors, and generator outages in frigid temperatures can challenge grid operators to meet peak electrical demand.
The assessment includes analysis of operational risk during extreme conditions for insights into the effects that energy-limited resources, generator outages, and high electricity demand can have on area reliability. Mitigation measures include market mechanisms to secure higher levels of fuel assurance through the procurement of alternative fuel supplies, contracting for firm pipeline transportation, and operator coordinating with generators to improve forecast models. While there may be limits on the availability of natural gas in some cases, higher natural gas injections occurred recently at key storage sites in North America.
Further, clarified communications, operating expectations, and training are among the recent improvements in extreme weather planning.
NERC’s independent assessments focus on improving bulk power system performance through the identification of reliability risks and advice to system planners, operators, and policymakers.
