NREL releases report on future of electricity

The National Renewable Energy Laboratory released a report that looks at the potential evolutions of the electricity sector through 2050.

The 2019 Standard Scenarios Report is produced annually to inform energy system stakeholders about the factors – whether its technology, policy, or market changes – that will steer the future direction of the party.

The report has 36 scenarios that capture a range of possible power system futures, looking at technology costs, fuel prices, demand growth, and current policy projections.

“We use this broad scenario range to better understand potential changes in the power sector,” Wesley Cole, senior analyst at NREL and the lead author of the study, said. “For example, in this year’s report, we looked at how variable generators like wind and solar can contribute toward grid reliability under high and low renewable energy conditions.”

The Standard Scenarios analysis uses technology costs and performance data from NREL’s Annual Technology Baseline, as well as other NREL modeling tools. This year’s report explores three key themes based on the modeled scenario results: how different technology revenues change with the evolving generation mix, how resource adequacy is maintained as variable generation increases, and how these changes occur regionally across the United States.

“By providing insights like these, we aim to improve the robustness and comparability of the vast array of electric sector analysis happening across the industry,” Cole said. “Our data helps accelerate these analyses while establishing baselines for related work.”