Coal-fired electricity generation declining but expected to remain stable
A new report by the International Energy Agency found that global coal demand declined in 2019 but will remain stable over the next five years due to robust growth in major Asian markets.
The decline in coal demand this year results is due mainly to a drop in coal-fired electricity generation, which saw a 2.5 percent drop, its largest ever decline. The biggest declines were in the United States and Europe. Declines in these two regions will continue through 2024 with expected increases in generation through natural gas and renewables.
“Wind and solar PV are growing rapidly in many parts of the world. With investment in new plants drying up, coal power capacity outside Asia is clearly declining and will continue to do so in the coming years,” Keisuke Sadamori, the IEA’s Director of Energy Markets and Security, said. “But this is not the end of coal, since demand continues to expand in Asia. The region’s share of global coal power generation has climbed from just over 20% in 1990 to almost 80% in 2019, meaning coal’s fate is increasingly tied to decisions made in Asian capitals.”
The saving grace for coal is in Asia, where countries in South and Southeast Asia – such as India, Indonesia, and Vietnam – are relying on coal.
“In 2019, global coal power generation will experience the biggest drop ever, and coal power generation in India will probably decline for the first time in 45 years,” Sadamori said. “The global picture, however, has not changed much. Coal is disappearing in many advanced economies, but it remains resilient and is even continuing to grow in developing Asia. The low coal power generation in India this year was due to unusually low growth in electricity demand and exceptionally high hydropower output. It is not at all clear that it will be repeated.”
