North American Electric Reliability Corporation releases 2019 Long-Term Reliability Assessment

Published on January 06, 2020 by Kevin Randolph


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Capacity resources are projected to meet increasing peak demand over the next 10 years, and the addition of new generation and storage will require continued improvements to system planning and operations, according to a recent report from the North American Electric Reliability Corporation (NERC).

According to NERC’s 2019 Long-Term Reliability Assessment, the installation of more than 330 gigawatts (GW) of solar and wind capacity is planned through 2029. The report also found that the rate of transmission infrastructure development required to support these resources will decrease from approximately 40,000 circuit miles earlier this decade to less than 15,000 circuit miles over the next ten years.

“The amount of variable, inverter-based and electricity storage resources identified in this year’s report serves as an early indicator of a transforming bulk power system,” John Moura, director of Reliability Assessment and Performance Analysis, said. “As we navigate the complex and technical challenges facing the industry, the ERO Enterprise is committed to enhancing our reliability assessments, strengthening our guidance to industry and calibrating requirements that preserve bulk power system reliability.”

The assessment also found that approximately 35 GW of distributed solar photovoltaic and 8 GW of utility-scale electricity storage are expected by 2024. Reserve margins are at or above recommended levels in all areas of North America over the 10-year outlook, but Texas and Ontario project some increased risk when compared to the reference margin level, according to the report.

The report offers several recommendations to the ERO Enterprise and industry, including increasing coordination with policymakers, ensuring accurate system models, assessing the reliability impacts of electric storage, and identifying key resilience metrics.

NERC developed the assessment from data and narrative information collected from the six Regional Entities.