EIA projects slower natural gas growth, increased renewable energy growth
The U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) recently released a new Short-Term Energy Outlook (STEO), which forecasts slower growth of generation from natural gas-fired power plants and record growth of renewables.
The EIA predicts that generation from natural gas-fired power plants in the electric power sector will increase by 1.3 percent in 2020, which would be the slowest growth rate since 2017. The report also projects that non-hydropower renewable generation will grow by 15 percent in 2020, the fastest growth rate in four years. Generation from coal-fired power plants is forecasted to decrease by 13 percent in 2020.
The EIA estimates that 12.7 gigawatts (GW) of U.S. coal-fired capacity was retired in 2019, approximately five percent of the total existing coal capacity at the start of the year. In 2020, 5.8 GW is scheduled to retire.
The U.S. electric power sector added or plans to add approximately 11.4 GW of capacity at natural gas combined-cycle power plants in 2019 and 2020, according to EIA estimates.
The EIA expects that the electric power sector will add 19.3 GW of utility-scale solar capacity in 2019 and 2020, an increase of 65 percent from 2018 capacity levels. EIA anticipates approximately 30 GW in new wind capacity, a 32 percent increase, in 2019 and 2020.
The EIA forecasts that in 2021, U.S. generation from non-hydropower renewables will increase by 17 percent. The increase in renewables capacity and forecasted increases in natural gas costs are expected to contribute to a 2.3 percent decline in natural gas-fired generation in 2021. U.S. generation from coal is expected to decrease by 3.2 percent in 2021.
