EIA forecasts continued but slowed crude oil production growth through 2021
The U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) forecasted in the January 2020 update of its Short-Term Energy Outlook (STEO) that U.S. crude oil production will continue to grow but at a slower rate.
EIA forecasted that U.S. crude oil production will average 13.3 million barrels per day (b/d) in 2020, an increase of nine percent from 2019 production levels, and 13.7 million b/d in 2021, a three percent increase from 2020.
According to EIA, crude oil production growth in the United States is slowing because of a decrease in the number of drilling rigs in the past year, a trend that EIA expects will continue through most of 2020. Although the number of rigs is declining, increased rig efficiency and well-level productivity is expected to offset the decline in rigs until drilling activity increases in 2021.
EIA’s forecast of U.S. crude oil production is based on the West Texas Intermediate (WTI) price forecast in the January 2020 STEO, which increases from an average of $57 per barrel (b) in 2019 to an average of $59/b in 2020 and $62/b in 2021.
