The U.S. Energy Information Administration projects in its Annual Energy Outlook 2020 (AEO2020) Reference case that U.S. energy-related carbon dioxide (CO2) emissions will decrease through the early 2030s, then increase to 4.9 billion metric tons by 2050.
This would result in U.S. energy-related CO2 emissions in 2050 that are 4 percent lower than 2019 levels.
The reference case assumes no new laws and regulations. Changes in the fuel mix and increasing activity in the industrial and transportation sectors are the main drivers of the projections.
Emissions of CO2 from the U.S. electric power sector see the largest drop through 2025 due to coal power plant retirements and additions in renewable generation capacity. From 2025 to 2050, electric power sector CO2 emissions remain relatively constant as the more economically viable coal power plants stay in service.
Through the late 2020s, CO2 emissions in the U.S. transportation sector decrease. Improving fuel efficiency more than offsets the impacts of increased total travel and freight movements, resulting in a reduction in petroleum-based energy consumption in the transportation sector.
After 2031, total U.S. energy-related CO2 emissions resume growth but remain four percent lower than 2019 levels in 2050. Increased transportation and industrial sector activity leads to increased petroleum and natural gas consumption, while residential and commercial energy sector emissions remain relatively flat throughout the projection period.
Other scenarios in AEO2020 show the impacts of variables such as economic activity, oil prices, renewable energy technology costs, and oil and natural gas resource estimates on U.S. energy-related CO2 emissions projections. Energy-related CO2 emissions vary the most in cases that alter economic growth assumptions. By 2050, CO2 emissions in the High Economic Growth case are 13 percent higher than in the Reference case and 9 percent higher than 2019 levels. CO2 emissions in the Low Economic Growth case are 11 percent lower than in the Reference case and 15 percent lower than 2019 levels.
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