NERC assessment finds capacity will largely meet next decade’s demands even as grid changes

While resources are fundamentally changing the power grid like wind and solar, the growth of distributed energy resources (DER), and the retirement of old resources, a new report from the North American Reliability Corporation (NERC) found that in all but two areas, capacity should meet demand over the next 10 years.

NERC’s 2020 Long-Term Reliability Assessment determined that sufficient resource adequacy now exists across most of North America. Still, it found the continent’s changing generation resource mix to be one drought with risk: in reliability, security, and resilience alike. This is largely due to how it affects the planning and operation of the grid.

“As the system becomes more reliant on wind and solar generation, resource and energy adequacy must be assured,” Mark Olson, manager of Reliability Assessments, said. “The changing resource mix introduces greater variability, making long-term planning more complex. To meet this challenge, we need to create the necessary models, technology, and strategies to properly support future grid operators.”

However, the report warns that nearly all parts of the Western Interconnection, ERCOT, and MISO will face increased risk over the next five years.

In response to these new realities, NERC made several recommendations, which include rolling energy adequacy risk evaluations into reliability assessments, creating design-basis fuel supply scenarios of normal and extreme events, increasing communication related to resource adequacy risks with policymakers, and ensuring accurate and valid power flow and dynamics base case models, among others.