DOE Berkeley Lab looks at progress made toward zero emissions

A new report from the U.S. Department of Energy’s Lawrence Berkeley National Laboratory outlines how much progress the power sector has made in reducing carbon emissions over the past 15 years.

The report, called Halfway to Zero: Progress towards a Carbon-Free Power Sector, found that the progress over the past 15 years has been far greater than anticipated in 2005, citing data from the 2005 Annual Energy Outlook from the Energy Information Administration (EIA).

While the cost of electricity to consumers was 18 percent lower than anticipated, the progress made on the climate and human health was far greater. The reduction in carbon emissions was 52 percent lower than expected, while the cost to human health was 92 percent lower than expected. Also, the number of jobs in electricity generation was 29 percent higher than anticipated.

“Business-as-usual projections saw annual carbon dioxide emissions rising from 2,400 to 3,000 million metric tons (MMT) from 2005 to 2020,” Berkeley Lab scientist Ryan Wiser, lead author of the study, said. “But actual 2020 emissions fell to only 1,450 MMT. The U.S. cut power sector emissions by 52% below projected levels – we are now ‘halfway to zero.’”

Specifically, the total demand for electricity was almost exactly the same in 2020 as it was in 2005 – that’s 24 percent lower than was projected in 2005.

“This drop in demand was due in part to sectoral and economic changes, but also to greater energy efficiency driven by policies and technology advancement,” Wiser said.

Also, the prevalence of wind and solar power far exceeded expectations. These two renewable sources provided 13 times more generation in 2020 than projected. Further, the switch from coal to natural gas for power generation played a key role in lowering carbon emissions. These changes resulted in greater efficiencies as total electric bills for consumers were 18 percent lower in 2020 than previously projected by EIA. That comes out to a savings of $86 billion per year. Also, the power sector is supporting 200,000 more jobs than was expected.

A big factor that helped spur the reduction of carbon emissions was the adoption of carbon emissions reduction plans by states, federal entities, utilities, and corporations. Currently, 17 states, along with Washington D.C. and Puerto Rico, have adopted laws or executive orders to achieve 100 percent carbon-free electricity in the next couple of decades. Further, 46 U.S. utilities have pledged to go carbon free no later than 2050. These goals cover about half of the U.S. population and economy.

The study also found that these efforts have had a positive impact on the health of Americans. Reduced sulfur and nitrogen emissions led to lower health impacts, such as respiratory disease, with premature deaths falling from 38,000 to 3,100 per year.

“Compared to the business-as-usual projection, not only did the nation significantly reduce its carbon footprint, but it did so while also reducing total energy bills and health burdens,” co-author and Berkeley Lab scientist Dev Millstein said.

Looking ahead, the researchers found that a large share of the capacity needed to approach zero emissions in the power sector are already in the development pipeline. That includes about 660 gigawatts (GW) of wind and solar, which is more than half of what might be required to reach zero emissions. However, while the capacity is almost there, the researchers said significant investments in infrastructure are still required to scale up renewable energy.

The study also points out that further research and development is needed in the area of energy storage, particularly longer-duration energy storage, hydrogen or synthetic fuels, bioenergy, fossil or biomass generation with carbon capture, nuclear energy, geothermal energy, and solar-thermal with storage.

“As the country maps out a plan for further decarbonization, experience from the past 15 years offers two central lessons,” Wiser said. “First, policy and technology advancement are imperative to achieving significant emissions reductions. Second, our ability to predict the future is limited, and so it will be crucial to adapt as we gain policy experience and as technologies advance in unexpected ways.”