IEA report finds goal to achieving global net-zero emissions by 2050 narrow, but brings major opportunities
The window to achieve net-zero emissions by 2050 is closing fast, a special report from the International Energy Agency (IEA) made clear this week, but if the global energy sector manages to transform and adapt, millions of jobs and major economic gains could result.
According to the Net Zero by 2050: a Roadmap for the Global Energy Sector report, as it stands, government climate pledges would, even if fully achieved, leave the world far short of what is needed to bring energy-related CO2 emissions to net zero within the 2050 timeframe. Even that would only give the world a chance of limiting the global temperature rise to 1.5 degrees Celsius. An unprecedented transformation drive is necessary, by the IEA’s estimation, and its report offered the world’s first comprehensive study of how to get there.
“Our Roadmap shows the priority actions that are needed today to ensure the opportunity of net-zero emissions by 2050 – narrow but still achievable – is not lost. The scale and speed of the efforts demanded by this critical and formidable goal – our best chance of tackling climate change and limiting global warming to 1.5 °C – make this perhaps the greatest challenge humankind has ever faced,” Dr. Fatih Birol, IEA Executive Director, said. “The IEA’s pathway to this brighter future brings a historic surge in clean energy investment that creates millions of new jobs and lifts global economic growth. Moving the world onto that pathway requires strong and credible policy actions from governments, underpinned by much greater international cooperation.”
In all, the roadmap lays out more than 400 waypoints to reach net zero by 2050. These would include major changes such as a complete halt on all new fossil fuel supply projects and further coal plants. By 2035, there could be no new sales of internal combustion engine passenger cars, while by 2040, the global electricity sector would need to reach net-zero emissions already.
The report also stressed that immediate and massive deployment of all available clean and efficient energy technologies is necessary, along with a major innovation push. Putting a figure to the call, it urged 630 GW of annual solar PV additions and 390 GW of wind power by 2030 — figures four times the 2020 record.
It’s a massive undertaking by both scale and speed demanded, and as a result, the IEA recognized that sustained support and participation from citizens and governments alike would be required. Research and development spending will need to increase and be prioritized to produce everything from advanced batteries to direct air capture and storage technologies.
Equity will also be a big part of this push. The roadmap calls for a nearly $40 billion per year investment to guarantee electricity for some 785 million people who currently have no access to it. In return, this could reduce major health concerns by slicing indoor air pollution, saving as many as 2.5 million lives per year.
Broken down, the roadway seeks annual energy investment to reach $5 trillion by 2030, resulting in as much as a 0.4 percentage point per year growth to global GDP. That’s based on estimates from the International Monetary Fund. When factoring in the jobs this would create, global GDP could reach 4 percent higher in 2030 than it’s currently on track to achieve. If followed to the letter, by 2050, the roadmap’s suggestions could lead to 8 percent smaller global energy demand while serving a larger population — an energy sector made up of almost 90 percent renewable sources.
“The pathway laid out in our Roadmap is global in scope, but each country will need to design its own strategy, taking into account its own specific circumstances,” Birol said. “Plans need to reflect countries’ differing stages of economic development: in our pathway, advanced economies reach net zero before developing economies.”
The special report will be used to inform high-level negotiations at the 26th Conference of the Parties of the United Nations Climate Change Framework Convention in Glasgow, Scotland, in November.
