NERC report warns of potential energy shortfalls this summer in certain parts of the country

Some parts of North America could face energy shortfalls this summer, according to a new report.

The North American Electric Reliability Corporation’s (NERC) National 2021 Summer Reliability Assessment said parts of the country are at elevated or high risk of energy shortfalls during above-normal peak temperatures this summer.

In particular, the NERC report said that California is in the “high risk” category, as it relies on large energy imports during peak demand scenarios and when solar resource output retreats in the evening hours. NERC points out that solar PV output falls off rapidly in the late afternoon while high demand often remains. Additionally, the dependence on large energy imports during these periods is an increasing reliability risk.

The good news is more than 3 GW of additional resources are expected in California this summer compared to 2020, with most of the new capacity coming from solar photovoltaic (PV) generation. This new capacity will help support peak demand.

“While actions taken by the California Public Utilities Commission, CAISO, and utilities to procure additional resources will help, the Western Interconnection’s increase in demand and decline in resources may reduce the amount of surplus capacity available when California is in shortfall.

Officials at CAISO said they are better prepared than last year but acknowledge that risks remain.

“New resources are coming online by summer, and we have taken the lessons learned from last year to make modifications to our market and operations. This makes us cautiously optimistic that there will be enough electricity to meet demand this summer,” Elliot Mainzer, president and CEO of CAISO, said. “But there are remaining risks to reliability, such as an extreme prolonged heatwave affecting wide swaths of the West, or serious wildfires. In partnership with utilities and other service providers across the state, we will be providing Californians with advance notice of stressed grid conditions along with specific actions they can take to help reduce demand for power.”

The NERC report found that most of North America has adequate energy supply for the summer months. However, the report did acknowledge that parts of New England, Texas, the West, and the Midcontinent Independent System Operator, or MISO, region are at elevated risk. The MISO region includes parts of the Midwest and South.