IAEA revises upward its projections for nuclear power use

The International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) raised its projections for the potential growth of nuclear power capacity over the coming decades.

The IAEA now expects world nuclear generating capacity to double to 792 gigawatts (GW) of electrical output by 2050, up from 393 GW last year. This high case scenario is revised up almost 10 percent from last yearʻs projection of 715 GW by 2050. This is the first time it has been revised up in more than a decade since the Fukushima Daiichi nuclear accident in Japan in 2011.

“The new IAEA projections show that nuclear power will continue to play an indispensable role in low carbon energy production,” IAEA Director General Rafael Mariano Grossi said. “The report’s findings represent an encouraging sign of increasing awareness that nuclear power, which emits no carbon dioxide during operation, is absolutely vital in our efforts to achieve net zero emissions.”

IAEA officials said this does not yet mark a trend, but it signals that the world is moving away from fossil fuels to fight climate change.

However, officials point out that to meet these projections, significant actions are required, including an accelerated implementation of innovative nuclear technologies. Commitments under the 2015 Paris Agreement could support nuclear power development if the necessary energy policies and market designs facilitate investments in low-carbon technologies.

The report – the 41st edition of Energy, Electricity and Nuclear Power Estimates for the Period up to 2050 – says that nuclear energy could contribute about 12 percent of global electricity by 2050, up from 11 percent in last year’s 2050 high case projections. In 2020, nuclear power generated around 10 percent of the world’s electricity.

Since the report was first published 40 years ago, the IAEA’s projections have been continually refined to reflect an evolving global energy context.