NERC releases winter reliability assessment report

The North American Electric Reliability Corp. (NERC) released its assessment for the winter season and found that reliability risk is elevated in regions especially vulnerable to extreme weather, natural gas supply disruptions, and low hydro conditions.

NERC’s 2021–2022 Winter Reliability Assessment advises the industry to take proactive steps for generator readiness, fuel availability, and sustained operations in extreme conditions. Regions of particular risk this winter include:

• Central United States: Peak demand or generator outages that exceed forecasts can be expected to cause energy emergencies in MISO, SPP, and ERCOT this winter season;
• New England: New England’s transportation infrastructure can be constrained when cold temperatures cause peak demand for generation and consumer heating needs. New England competes for liquefied natural gas supply on the world market, and unprecedented high liquefied natural gas demand is anticipated for this winter;
• California: California has limited storage and lacks redundancy in the supply infrastructure;
• Western United States and Canada: Continuing drought in the West has caused low hydro conditions and could reduce the electricity supply available for transfer. Higher demand from more extreme temperatures in the Northwest could cause a shortfall. Also, low hydro conditions can reduce transfers needed to mitigate a wide-area cold weather event.

“Winter Storm Uri highlighted the vulnerabilities of our electricity and natural gas systems during long duration, widespread cold-weather conditions. The industry has taken major steps to prepare for extreme weather conditions this winter, but our existing generation fleet and fuel infrastructure remain exposed in many areas,” Mark Olson, manager of Reliability Assessments, said. “To be resilient in extreme weather, we are counting on our grid operators to proactively monitor the generation fleet, adjust operating plans and keep the lines of communication open.”

NERC’s assessment also found that generator owners are facing challenges in obtaining coal and oil fuels as supply chains are stressed. Also, generator resource availability could suffer as a result of equipment failure or lack of fuel under severe winter conditions.

To reduce the risks of energy shortfalls on the grid this winter, NERC recommends that grid operators, generator owners, and generator operators review the NERC Level 2 Alert and NERC’s Generating Unit Winter Weather Readiness Guideline. Also, NERC says balancing authorities should poll their generating units periodically and in advance of approaching severe weather to understand their readiness level for normal and extreme conditions. Further, balancing authorities and reliability coordinators should conduct drills on alert protocols to ensure they are prepared to signal a need for conservative operations.

In addition, distribution providers and load-serving entities should review non-firm customer inventories and rolling blackout procedures to ensure that no critical infrastructure loads (e.g., natural gas, telecommunications) would be affected.