NYISO releases Comprehensive Reliability Plan on the New York State bulk power system
The New York Independent System Operator (NYISO) released its Comprehensive Reliability Plan (CRP), which concludes that the New York State bulk power system will meet system demands and reliability criteria from 2021 through 2030 in normal weather conditions.
However, the report points out that the margin to maintain reliability over the next 10 years will narrow or could be eliminated based upon changes in forecasted system conditions. It also highlights some of the risks to reliability, such as delayed implementation of planned generation and transmission projects, additional generator deactivations beyond those expected or unplanned outages, and the impacts of extreme weather conditions.
“The latest study demonstrates that our reliability margins are thinning to concerning levels beginning in 2023,” Zach Smith, vice president of system & resource planning, said. “We have to move carefully with the grid in transition in order to maintain reliability and avoid the kind of problems we’ve seen in other parts of the U.S.”
The report adds that the potential risks to reliability identified in the analyses may be resolved by new capacity resources coming into service, construction of additional transmission facilities, and/or increased energy efficiency, integration of distributed energy resources, and growth in demand response participation.
Also, the report states that while battery storage resources help fill in voids in renewable resources output, extended periods rapidly deplete storage capabilities. This will result in the need for longer-running dispatchable emission-free resources. While significant amounts of dispatchable, emission-free resources are needed to balance renewable intermittency on the system, they are not commercially available at this time. However, they will be critical to future grid reliability. The report suggests that the necessary dispatchable emission-free resources could be over 32,000 MW, roughly 6,000 MW more than the total fossil-fueled power plants on the New York grid in 2021.
While the New York State bulk power system will meet all currently applicable reliability criteria from 2021 through 2030 for forecasted system demand in normal weather, the CRP made several recommendations based on risks to bulk power system reliability.
Specifically, NYISO will continue to monitor the completion of the identified projects and the progress of local transmission projects as they relate to the reliability needs initially identified in the Reliability Needs Assessment. It will also administer its Short-Term Reliability Process to address generator deactivation notices and other system changes quarterly. Further, NYISO will continue to address reliability issues identified for the ten-year planning horizon. In addition, the report demonstrates that system margins are expected to narrow to such a level that warrants review of current reliability rules, procedures, and practices. Finally, the NYISO will continue to monitor and participate in other planning activities, including PSC proceedings considering CLCPA requirements and implementation of the Accelerated Renewable Energy Growth and Community Benefit Act.