Water supply in Columbia River Basin recovers from drought conditions, still below normal for hydropower outlook
Earlier this month, the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration’s Northwest River Forecast Center (NWRFC) revised its water supply forecast of the Columbia River Basin’s supply to below normal, as opposed to mired in active drought.
That change could bring with it an 8 percent increase in U.S. hydroelectric generation capability over 2021 levels. If the prediction holds, hydropower plants could generate 278 million MW hours of electricity in 2022, as about half of this will depend on the Northwest. More than one-third of U.S. hydropower capacity stems from the Columbia River Basin.
Presently, the southern areas of the basin remain in below-normal conditions, whereas other sections have settled closer to near-normal supply levels. The two main factors affecting this supply tend to be seasonal precipitation and snowpack accumulation, which help create natural reservoirs. Changes in water supply in the Northwest can, due to its outsized presence in hydropower, cause a cascading effect on other electricity-generating fuels in the region, such as natural gas, as well as electricity trade with other areas.
The 2022 water year – which technically began in October 2021 – followed a historic drought that caused a 9 percent decline in hydropower generation throughout the country, thanks to record heat waves. More precipitation since October helped recovery, but that didn’t extend to the Columbia River Basin’s southern region, causing snowpack accumulation to suffer. However, there is a chance accumulation could still occur through April.
According to the Energy Information Administration, this all leaves the hydroelectricity industry with a predicted 7 percent share of total U.S. generation for 2022.
