Princetonʻs ZERO Lab outlines pathway to carbon-free electricity in New Jersey
A new report from researchers at Princeton University found that the most cost-effective pathway for New Jersey to reach 100 percent carbon free electricity by 2050 involves a significant amount of imported electricity.
The 186-page study – called New Jersey’s Pathway to a 100% Carbon-Free Electricity Supply: Policy and Technology Choices Through 2050 – was developed by the Zero-carbon Energy Systems Research and Optimization Laboratory (ZERO Lab) at Princeton.
“New Jersey is among a vanguard of states pursuing a transition to 100 percent carbon-free electricity. Our goal for this study: provide a detailed, independent assessment of key policy and technology options and choices and their implications for NJ’s pathway to 100% carbon-free,” Jesse Jenkins, leader of the ZERO Lab and an assistant professor at Princeton University, tweeted about the report.
Jenkins authored the report with QingyuXu, Neha Patankar, and ChuanZhang from the ZERO Lab.
The study explores the role of in-state solar PV, offshore wind, nuclear power, and imported electricity in the state’s electricity future. Among the key findings, the study said that a transition to 100 percent carbon-free electricity is feasible while maintaining reliability and reducing bulk electricity supply costs. Further, it shows the lowest-cost strategy to reach 100 percent carbon-free electricity supply requires a significant increase in the state’s dependence on imported electricity.
It adds that imports of wind, solar, and other carbon-free resources from out of state are generally more affordable than available in-state resources. This would be a departure from New Jersey’s current policy approach, which prioritizes in-state and distributed generation.
The study also revealed that due to electrification of vehicles and buildings consistent with the state’s climate goals, electricity demand could increase significantly — up to 85 percent at peak demand — while patterns of consumption could shift dramatically.
It also finds that import dependence could be reduced by requiring in-state renewable resources and preserving the state’s existing nuclear reactors. The most affordable strategy to prioritize in-state resources increases bulk electricity supply costs by 7 to 10 percent relative to the least-cost 100 percent carbon-free pathway. However, it still results in costs comparable to or lower than today.
Finally, the researchers point out that if states in the region pursue parallel deep decarbonization goals, the costs of reaching 100 percent carbon-free electricity in New Jersey will increase by 16 to 20 percent. Bulk electricity supply costs in 2050 range from -13 percent to +11 percent relative to 2019 costs if all states in the region pursue 100 percent carbon-free electricity.
The ZERO Lab researchers used a state-of-the-art open-source electricity system optimization model, GenX, which plans investment and operational decisions to meet projected future electricity demand while meeting all relevant engineering, reliability, and policy constraints at the lowest cost. They created a detailed model of the electricity system of New Jersey, the PJM Interconnection, and neighboring grid regions.
