EIA predicts renewable generation to supply 44 percent of U.S. electricity by 2050

By the year 2050, nearly 50 percent of United States power generation – 44 percent – will be sourced from renewable generation, largely thanks to increases and wind and solar power deployment, at least according to the latest expectations of the Energy Information Administration (EIA).

In its Annual Energy Outlook 2022, released last week, the EIA made a reference case projection based on current laws and regulations. That report estimated that solar will reign supreme in these surges of greener energy, surpassing wind generation by early in the next decade. At the same time, the total share held by U.S. fossil fuel-fired power generation will likely decrease 16 percent, to 44 percent of the U.S. total, due to continued backing away from coal and slower growth predictions for natural gas-fired generation.

Notably, natural gas generation will continue to increase, but its share will not match it, decreasing 3 percentage points, to 34 percent of the U.S. total, by 2050.

Federal tax credits have largely driven the current growth in solar and wind-based power. However, these are set to expire or wind down by 2026. Despite this, the EIA noted that costs continue to tumble for both technologies, aiding their near and long-term growth. These growths will offset the declining usage of coal and nuclear shares, thanks to favorable incentives among regulatory programs and market factors.

The report also estimates that hydropower’s contribution to power will remain largely unchanged over the next 23 years. Other sources, such as geothermal and biomass, will remain less than 3 percent of total generation. At the same time, energy storage systems, like stand-alone batteries and solar-battery hybrid systems, will compete with natural gas-fired generators as generation sources and backup capacity when non-dispatchable resources like wind or solar are not available.

While energy storage capacity is also likely to increase, the EIA nevertheless did not factor it into its report because it is not an original energy fuel source.