US likely to become natural gas net exporter by 2018

The United States is projected to become a net exporter of natural gas on an annual basis by 2018, according to the U.S. Energy Information Administration’s recently released Annual Energy Outlook 2017 (AEO2017) Reference case.

The United States is also expected to become a net energy exporter in the 2020s, according to most AEO2017 cases, due in large part to increased natural gas exports.

Declining imports, growing pipeline exports and increasing liquefied natural gas (LNG) exports is expected to drive the shift to natural gas exporter. In 2016, the United States had net natural gas imports of 0.9 trillion cubic feet or 2.6 billion cubic feet per day.

LNG exports are expected to surpass pipeline exports by 2020. Several LNG exports projects are currently under construction, four of which are predicted to be completed by 2021. In 2016, the Sabine Pass facility in Louisiana became the first LNG export project to enter operation in the lower 48 states.

U.S. pipeline exports to Mexico, which have doubled since 2009, are expected to continue to increase until at least 2020. Although U.S. pipeline imports from Canada are expected to decline, the United States will remain a net importer of natural gas by pipeline from Canada through 2040 in all but one AEO2017 case. In this case, the United States will become a net exporter by pipeline to Canada by 2030.