NERC assessment examines areas of risk for energy shortfalls this summer
The North American Electric Reliability Corp. (NERC) cautions that several parts of the United States and Canada are at elevated or high risk of energy shortfalls this summer.
NERC’s 2022 Summer Reliability Assessment said these areas are mostly in the Western parts of the two countries due to predicted above-normal temperatures and drought conditions, which contribute to high peak demands. However, the assessment points out that there are adequate resources throughout most of North America this summer.
The areas considered at “elevated risk” during extreme conditions are the Western Interconnection, Texas, Southwest Power Pool (SPP), and Saskatchewan. Midcontinent ISO (MISO) is in the “high risk” category, facing capacity shortfalls in its north and central areas during normal and extreme conditions due to generator retirements and increased demand. Additionally, MISO will be without a key transmission line connecting its northern and southern areas in the early summer as it was damaged by a tornado last December.
In the Western Interconnection, the widespread drought and below-normal snowpack can lead to below-average output from hydro generators, which threatens the availability of electricity for transfers throughout the Interconnection. In Texas, heat events coupled with drought can lead to higher-than-expected peak electricity demand and tighter reserve conditions. In addition, drought conditions over the Missouri River Basin may impact output from thermal generators that use the Missouri River for cooling in SPP.
“Industry prepares its equipment and operators for challenging summer conditions. Persistent, extreme drought and its accompanying weather patterns, however, are out-of-the-ordinary and tend to create extra stresses on electricity supply and demand,” Mark Olson, NERC’s manager of Reliability Assessments, said. “Grid operators in affected areas will need all available tools to keep the system in balance this summer. Over the longer term, system planners and resource adequacy stakeholders need to keep potentially abnormal weather conditions like these in mind so that we continue to have a reliable and resilient bulk power system.”
The assessment also cited other concerns, including supply chain issues and commissioning challenges; cyber security threats from Russia, and others, on critical infrastructure; unexpected tripping of solar photovoltaic resources during grid disturbances; and an active late-summer wildfire season in the Western United States and Canada.
The Electric Power Supply Association (EPSA) said this assessment hammers home the need for an increased focus on reliability by lawmakers and policymakers.
“Extreme weather and increased demand due to electrification will only put further strain on a system intended to consistently and safely deliver power to America’s families and businesses. Thoughtful consideration must be given to reality-based strategies and related policies that seek to promote affordably reducing emissions while making reliability the top priority,” Todd Snitchler, president and CEO of EPSA, said.
