EIA estimates of global surplus crude oil production show capacity down 80 percent among non-OPEC nations
Preliminary estimates of a new U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) report found that global surplus crude oil production capacity among non-OPEC countries was down 80 percent as of May 2022.
The report, Global Surplus Crude Oil Production Capacity, provides estimates of global surplus crude oil production capacity in both OPEC countries and non-OPEC countries.
The report noted the impact of the Russian invasion of Ukraine and tightened international sanctions that followed. The EIA estimates are compared to 2021 when 1.4 million barrels per day of surplus production capacity were available in non-OPEC countries. Approximately 60 percent of that belonged to Russia, the EIA stated, and as of May 2022, all surplus production capacity in Russia was wiped out by sanctions. This coincided with declines in excess oil production capacity in other non-OPEC producing countries, which tumbled to about 280,000 b/d.
Surplus capacity refers to the maximum existing capacity that can be tapped within 30 days and sustained for at least 90 days, excluding oil volumes affected by unplanned outages and disruptions such as sanctions. Because of this, Russia joined Iran, Libya, and Venezuela in exclusion from global estimates.
OPEC may not have been as dramatically impacted as non-OPEC nations. However, the EIA still estimated the 13-country organization’s capacity declined more than 55 percent compared to 2021, down to 3 million b/d by May, as opposed to 5.4 million b/d last year.
Combined, the decreases in OPEC and non-OPEC surplus crude oil production capacity as of May were less than half of the 2021 average.
