EPRI analysis shows increase in electricity generation capacity needed to meet net-zero goals
An analysis conducted by the Electric Power Research Institute (EPRI) finds that a significant increase in new electricity generating capacity will be required to achieve net-zero emissions by 2050.
The analysis, done by EPRI’s Low-Carbon Resources Initiative (LCRI) in conjunction with GTI Energy, said electricity generating capacity may have to increase by as much as 480 percent over current levels. Specifically, new capacity in the electric sector by 2050 is anticipated to range from 1,650 gigawatts (GW) to 4,860 GW, representing an increase between 160 percent and 480 percent.
“This analysis highlights both the potential trajectory for new electricity generation sources and the importance of optionality in meeting economy-wide clean energy targets,” Neva Espinoza, vice president of Energy Supply and Low-Carbon Resources at EPRI, said. “Above all else, the energy system of tomorrow will need greater flexibility if the U.S. is to reach its mid-century climate goals affordably, reliably, and equitably. When it comes to developing the full portfolio of energy resources, the decisions industry and government leaders make today will directly impact the options available in the decades ahead.”
The analysis said that it will take significant growth in firm electricity generation capacity — including natural gas with carbon capture and storage (CCS), nuclear, hydrogen, hydropower, geothermal, bioenergy, and bulk energy storage – and variable energy resources, like wind and solar.
“GTI Energy and EPRI are exploring pathways to leverage low-carbon resources and technologies capable of transforming today’s energy systems to meet the urgency of the climate crisis,” Kristine Wiley, vice president of GTI Energy’s Hydrogen Technology Center, said. “The results of our LCRI Net-Zero 2050 study show that optionality drives affordability—we need to deploy a full menu of electric and renewable energy sources and leverage gases, liquids, infrastructure, and efficiency to enable an affordable energy transition by midcentury.”
The EPRI research also found that pipeline gas and associated infrastructure continue to serve multiple markets as biofuels and hydrogen expand across sectors, particularly for hard-to-decarbonize areas of the economy.
EPRI is an independent, non-profit energy research and development organization with offices around the world.
