NERC warns portions of bulk power system at risk during severe winter weather

The North American Electric Reliability Corporation (NERC) is warning that a large portion of the North American bulk power system is at risk of having insufficient energy supplies during severe winter weather.

NERC’s 2022-2023 Winter Reliability Assessment advises the power industry to be ready to implement operating plans to manage potential supply shortfalls. Further, it encourages energy providers to ensure that fuel supplies are secured and generators and natural gas facilities are weatherized.

“Fuel supply issues appear prominently in this year’s assessment. Reliability Coordinators across North America are closely monitoring the coal and liquid fuel inventories, as well as the potential impacts that transportation disruptions can have on availability and replenishment of all fuels,” John Moura, NERC’s director of Reliability Assessment and Performance Analysis, said. “Also, while the grid has a sufficient supply of capacity resources under normal winter conditions, we are concerned that some areas are highly vulnerable to extreme and prolonged cold. As a result, load-shedding may be required to maintain reliability.”

Regions at particular risk this winter include Texas, SERC-East, and southern parts of MISO, where there is a risk of a significant number of generator-forced outages in extreme and prolonged cold temperatures. Also, in the Midcontinent ISO (MISO), more than 4.2 GW of nuclear and coal-fired generation have been retired since last winter, with few resources being added, so reserve margins in the region have fallen by more than 5 percent.

Further, New England has limited natural gas transportation capacity and relies on liquefied natural gas and oil-fired generators on peak demand days. Thus, potential constraints on the fuel delivery systems, coupled with the limited inventory of liquid fuels, may exacerbate the risks for fuel-based generator outages during extreme
weather.

“While the risk of energy emergencies in the three areas hardest hit during that event has not been eliminated, enhancements to equipment freeze protection and cold weather preparations for both the gas and electric industries is a positive step,” Mark Olson, NERC’s manager of Reliability Assessments, said.