NYISO says New York State has sufficient electricity supply to meet peak winter demand

Published on November 30, 2022 by Dave Kovaleski

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The New York Independent System Operator, also known as NYISO, predicts that electricity supplies in New York State will be sufficient to meet forecasted peak demand conditions this winter.

The region has a total of 43,184 megawatts (MW) of supply available, including imports from neighboring regions. NYISO forecasts peak demand for winter 2022-23 will reach 23,893 MW based on expected winter temperatures. The forecast represents an increase of 658 MW over last winter’s actual peak demand of 23,235 MW, reached on Jan. 11, 2022.

“The New York State bulk electric system is well positioned to meet this winter’s forecasted demand and maintain reliability throughout the season,” Aaron Markham, vice president of operations for the New York ISO, said. “However, as we have been highlighting for over a year, national and international economic conditions are contributing to a spike in consumer bills.”

To be extra cautious, NYISO runs scenarios of more extreme cold weather that would increase demand for electricity. In this extreme winter weather scenario, peak demand could increase to as much as 26,086 MW and, when coupled with expected availability of natural gas for power generation, would result in a projected surplus of 1,620 MW. New York’s all-time peak winter demand was set in January 2014 during the multi-day polar vortex conditions. It pushed demand to 25,738 MW.

“The NYISO operates the grid to meet reliability rules that are among the strictest in the nation. We are working closely with the New York utilities, regional partners, and generators to manage adequate fuel supplies and to maintain reliability throughout the winter,” Rich Dewey, president and CEO of the New York ISO, said.

Further, the NYISO is warning of a sharp rise in wholesale electricity prices this winter due to several economic and geopolitical factors that continue to impact the cost of natural gas used in the production of electricity.