EIA: Wind, solar generation is expected to grow over the next two years

The U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) anticipates increased U.S. power generation from new renewables like wind and solar in 2023 and 2024 and less from coal-fired and natural gas-fired power plants.

In its Short-Term Energy Outlook, EIA forecasts that wind and solar will account for 16 percent of total generation in 2023, up from 14 percent in 2022. In contrast, its forecast for coal generation falls from 20 percent in 2022 to 18 percent in 2023. In addition, the projection for natural gas generation in 2023 is 38 percent, down from 39 percent last year.

The U.S. electric power sector operated about 74 gigawatts (GW) of solar photovoltaic capacity at the end of 2022, which is three times more than just five years earlier in 2017. Additionally, U.S. wind power has grown by more than 60 percent since 2017 to about 143 GW of capacity.

Including planned additions, solar capacity will expand another 63 GW, or 84 percent, by the end of 2024, according to EIA. As a result, EIA expects the solar generation share to rise from 3 percent of U.S. generation last year to 5 percent in 2023 and 6 percent in 2024. Much of the growth in solar capacity is in Texas and California.

Wind generation capacity is expected to grow by about 12 GW over the next two years. The forecast wind generation share in 2023 remains relatively similar to last year at 11 percent. In 2024, it is expected to be 12 percent.