NERC issues warnings for summer reliability during periods of extreme heat

Published on May 19, 2023 by Dave Kovaleski


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The North American Electric Reliability Corp. (NERC) released its summer reliability assessment with some warnings about potential energy shortfalls.

NERC’s 2023 Summer Reliability Assessment warns that two-thirds of North America are at risk of energy shortfalls this summer during periods of extreme demand.

The good news is that no areas of the country are identified as high-risk areas, but the not so good news is that the number of regions identified with elevated risks has increased.

It should be noted that NERC found that resources are adequate for normal summer peak demand. However, if summer temperatures spike, seven areas — the U.S. West, SPP and MISO, ERCOT, SERC Central, New England and Ontario — may face supply shortages during higher demand levels.

“Increased, rapid deployment of wind, solar and batteries have made a positive impact,” Mark Olson, NERC’s manager of Reliability Assessments, said. “However, generator retirements continue to increase the risks associated with extreme summer temperatures, which factors into potential supply shortages in the western two-thirds of North America if summer temperatures spike.”

Looking at each of the areas, NERC notes that areas in the U.S. West are at elevated risk due to wide-area heat events that can drive above-normal demand and strain resources and the transmission network.

In SPP and MISO, wind energy output will be key to meeting normal summer peak and extreme demand levels due to little excess firm capacity.

In the ERCOT region of Texas, the risk of drought and high temperatures may challenge system resources and may result in emergency procedures, including the need for operator-controlled load shedding during periods of low wind and high generator outages.

The SERC Central region is forecasting higher peak demand and less supply capacity, creating challenges for operators to maintain reserves in extreme scenarios.

Further, New England has lower available capacity than last year, resulting in a higher likelihood of system operators using emergency procedures to manage extreme demand conditions.

Finally, in Ontario, extended nuclear refurbishment has reduced available capacity, limiting system reserves needed to manage peak demand.

In the report, NERC made several recommendations for industry and state policymakers to consider implementing before the start of the summer season. Among them, they should review operating plans and protocols for resolving supply shortfalls and employ conservative outage coordination procedures. Also, they should engage regulators and policymakers to prepare for efficient implementation of demand side management mechanisms. Further, state regulators and the industry should have protocols in place at the start of summer for managing emergent requests to preserve generation needed for periods of high demand.

“This report is an especially dire warning that America’s ability to keep the lights on has been jeopardized,” Jim Matheson, National Rural Electric Cooperative Association (NRECA), said. “That’s unacceptable. The decisions we make today determine whether utilities across the nation have the resources to power the American economy tomorrow. Federal policies must recognize the compromised reliability reality facing the nation before it’s too late.”

Matheson outlined five issues that are impacting the reliable delivery of electricity in the United States. They include: Increasing demand for electricity as other sectors of the economy are electrified; decreasing electricity supply due to the disorderly retirement and insufficient replacement of existing generation; permitting delays that prevent new electric infrastructure from being built and connected to the grid; supply chain challenges; and problems with natural gas availability.