IAEA annual report outlines growth projections for nuclear power

The International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) came out with its annual outlook for nuclear power, looking at global growth projections for the coming decades.

In the report, called Energy, Electricity and Nuclear Power Estimates for the Period up to 2050, the IAEA now sees a quarter more nuclear energy capacity installed by 2050 than it did as recently as 2020. This trend underscores how a growing number of countries are looking to this clean energy source to address the challenges of energy security, climate change and economic development.

“Climate change is a big driver, but so is security of energy supply,” IAEA Director General Rafael Mariano Grossi said. “Many countries are extending the lifetime of their existing reactors, considering or launching construction of advanced reactor designs and looking into small modular reactors (SMRs), including for applications beyond the production of electricity.”

He made these remarks at the IAEA’s 2nd International Conference on Climate Change and the Role of Nuclear Power 2023: Atoms4NetZero in Vienna.

In the high case scenario, nuclear installed capacity is seen more than doubling by 2050 to 890 gigawatts electric (GW(e)) compared with today’s 369 GW(e). In the low case scenario, capacity increases to 458 GW(e).

The high and low cases have been revised upwards by 2 percent and 14 percent, respectively, from last year’s outlook. Since the 2020 outlook, the high case projections to 2050 have now increased by 178 GW(e), or 24 percent, while the low case projections have jumped about 26 percent.

Despite the optimistic outlook, the report noted the challenges inherent in climate change, financing, economic considerations, and supply chain complexities that might hamper the industry’s growth. While efforts are underway to overcome these obstacles, much remains to be done to achieve a fair and enabling investment environment for new nuclear projects, according to the report.

“‘Nuclear energy or renewables’ is a false narrative,” Grossi said. “Such false narratives are to the detriment of everyone, especially when it comes to achieving a fair and enabling investment environment. We are not at a level playing field yet. To get there, decisions need to be made from a technologically agnostic view that is based on science, fact, and reason.”