PJM Interconnection predicts long-term electricity demand growth through 2039

In its long-term load forecast released this week, PJM Interconnection lays out its predictions for estimated electricity demand growth.

The forecast estimated 1.7 percent per year demand growth for summer peaks, 2 percent for winter peaks, and 2.4 percent for net energy over a 10-year planning horizon starting in 2024.

“This forecast reflects the accelerated growth that we discussed with our stakeholders throughout 2023, driven by the electrification of multiple sectors combined with consumer demands for technology,” Kenneth Seiler, senior vice president – planning at PJM, said. “It also underscores the need to maintain and develop enough generation resources to serve that growing demand.” Through its Ensuring a Reliable Energy Transition initiative and related research, PJM has noted that increased electricity demand, combined with accelerated generator retirements and the slow pace of replacement generation, will challenge reliability in the PJM footprint by 2030 if not addressed.”

The 2024 summer sees peak demand, or load, at 151,254 megawatts (MW), increasing to 178,895 MW in 2034 and 193,123 in 2039. Peak winter load is forecast at 134,663 MW for the 2023–2024 winter, going to 164,824 MW in 2034 and 178,241 in 2039. Overall, total annual energy use throughout the PJM footprint is expected to increase nearly 40 percent by 2039, from 800,000 gigawatt-hours (GWh) to about 1.1 million GWh.

The outlook said that rising energy demand in the region PJM serves, 13 states from New Jersey to Illinois, is increasingly driven by the development of data centers throughout the PJM footprint. Another big factor is the accelerating electrification of transportation and industry.

“These are useful numbers for lawmakers to understand as they craft policies for this energy transition we are experiencing,” Asim Haque, senior vice president – state & member services at PJM, said. “As we speed up the development of resources that are coming through our study process in large numbers, we will have to look hard at how to make sure our generation supply matches the increase in demand expressed here.”

Currently, the PJM footprint has about 500,000 light-duty electric vehicles (EVs) in 2024, and S&P Global is forecasting about 23 million light-duty EVs by 2039. That is a growth rate of just under 30 percent annually during that period. Also, PJM has about 25,000 medium- and heavy-duty EVs in 2024, and S&P Global is forecasting about 1.45 million medium- and heavy-duty EVs by 2039. That is also about a 30 percent annual growth rate.

PJM Interconnection coordinates the movement of electricity through all or parts of Delaware, Illinois, Indiana, Kentucky, Maryland, Michigan, New Jersey, North Carolina, Ohio, Pennsylvania, Tennessee, Virginia, West Virginia and the District of Columbia.