EIA: solar expected to supply almost all growth in U.S. electricity generation through 2025

According to a new Short-Term Energy Outlook from the U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA), solar electric generation will likely dominate growth in the power sector through 2025, boosting solar’s overall share of total generation. 

Over the course of 2025, solar is expected to account for 7 percent of total generation, up from 4 percent in 2023, and 5.6 percent in 2024. Despite this meaning slower growth on the domestic crude oil and natural gas side of the equation, even that production will bring new annual records. According to EIA’s outlook, U.S. crude oil production is seen reaching more than 13.4 million barrels per day in 2025. That will be a small increase over 2024’s predicted figures, and higher than all previous years. 

On the natural gas side, production is forecast to top 105 billion cubic feet per day in 2024 and 106 Bcf/d in 2025, likewise higher than all previous years. Year over year, though, it will only represent a more modest, slightly over 1 billion cubic feet per day increase. 

A fall will likely come to OPEC+ and coal production, as well as gasoline and diesel prices. According to the EIA, the organization’s crude oil production will average 37.2 million barrels per day in 2025 — less than its pre-pandemic five-year average of 40.2 million barrels per day. 

Alongside that expected fall below target, U.S. gasoline and diesel prices should decline slightly in 2024 and 2025 because of reduced refinery margins. Likewise, coal production and consumption should both fall to the lowest volumes since the early 1960s as demand falls throughout the electric power sector. Both segments of coal should be under 40 million short tons by that time.