PJM predicts adequate resources to meet hotter, wetter summer demand

Valley Forge, Pa.-based PJM Interconnection said Thursday it anticipates having enough resources to meet electricity demand for what weather forecasters say will be a hotter and wetter summer.

In a release, the operator of the nation’s largest electrical grid said despite generator retirements outpacing new generators coming online coinciding with increased consumer electricity demand, the company predicted it would have adequate resources to meet peak-usage.

“We plan throughout the year to make sure we have enough resources to serve load at the hottest time of the year,” said PJM President and CEO Manu Asthana. “But we are concerned that new generation is not coming online fast enough to replace retiring resources, and that subsequent years may be more challenging.”

PJM said it has fewer generation resources to draw on this summer. Its resources have approximately 182,500 MW of installed generating capacity this summer compared to approximately 186,500 MW of installed capacity last year. However, the company predicted there will be higher peak demand of 151,000 MW this summer, up from 147,000 last year. Historically, PJM’s all-time, one-day highest power use of 165,563 MW was recorded in 2006.

The company said it has performed reliability studies at loads exceeding 164,000 MW, but the increase peak load forecast combined with reduced generating capacity decreases the reserve margins for extreme weather scenarios. Higher levels of demand, combined with low solar and wind output, or high generator outages, would bring reserve margins down further. In that case, PJM said, additional emergency management scenarios might have to be implemented.

“With increasingly unpredictable weather patterns, we need to also prepare for more extreme weather conditions,” Aftab Khan, executive vice president of Operations, Planning and Security, said. “We will continue to work with our utility partners and stakeholders to refine our planning, analysis and communications of the risks presented by any challenging weather patterns this summer.”