Northwest Regional Forecast predicts more than 30 percent regional electric demand growth possible by 2033

The latest update to the not-for-profit Pacific Northwest Utilities Conference Committee’s (PNUCC) Northwest Regional Forecast painted a picture of surging demand throughout the Pacific Northwest as data center and high-tech manufacturing growth push electric needs ever higher.

Those needs could increase from 23,700 MW today to around 31,100 MW on average by 2033 – a more than 30 percent jump in 10 years, and a 6 percent leap beyond last year’s projections. The report noted growth at this pace to be equivalent to adding the weight of seven cities the size of Seattle to electricity demands.

That comes with its own share of challenges, especially since growth in the past 40 years had been more modest. While utilities in the region have already pushed hard on cleaner generating resources and needed retirements, and now host installed nameplate capacity of 55,600 MW, they’ll need to add more, fast, to meet demands like those forecasted.

“While individual utilities have unique needs, there is a shared commitment to collaboration in developing an unprecedented amount of new generation in the next 10 years,” Crystal Ball, PNUCC executive director, said. “This will require intense coordinated planning along with strong public support to assure an adequate, reliable power supply during the region’s transition to a cleaner energy future.”

Transitioning to lower carbon emitting generators would be challenge enough, but combining it with demand growth like this at the same time will put a major strain on existing infrastructure. The report noted that utilities will need to upgrade items like transmission capacity, accelerate adoption of advanced grid technologies and diversify their power supplies. Otherwise, events like what were seen just this January – a multi-day cold snap – could imperil the grid due to lack of supply.

PNUCC also pointed to the potential offered by a more connected grid throughout the wider West, which could help balance the variability of demand and supply, while supporting grid resiliency. The Pacific Northwest relies heavily on hydroelectric dams, and the growth of wind and solar are helping things out, but storage technologies, nuclear, natural gas and more could help improve the situation.