EIA outlook expects natural gas to be largest electricity source this summer
The U.S. Energy Information Administration’s (EIA) April 2017 Short-Term Energy Outlook (STEO) projects that natural gas-fired electricity generation will continue to be the top energy source this June, July and August, despite a slight drop from last summer’s levels.
The report expects natural gas’ share of total U.S. generation to average 34 percent this summer, which is down from 37 percent last summer. That projection still exceeds the share of coal generation, which is expected to average 32 percent.
EIA estimates, based on data from the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA), that average U.S. population-weighted cooling degree days in the summer of 2016 reached record levels. According to NOAA projections, cooling degree days this summer will be 11 percent lower than last year.
Due to the milder temperatures, U.S. summer electricity generation is predicted to be approximately 1.16 billion megawatt-hours, which is a 2.4 percent decrease from last summer’s generation.
Shares of both natural gas and coal are expected to decrease compared to last summer’s numbers due to increased output from renewable energy resources. In Western states, the share of generation from hydropower is expected to increase from 20 percent last summer to 27 percent this summer. This, in addition to added solar generation, is expected to decrease natural gas-fired generation from 34 percent to 37 percent.
The Midwest is the only region in which coal provides over half of summer electricity generation at a share of 54 percent. In other regions, no single fuel source provides a majority of summer electricity generation.
