EIA begins forecasting small-scale solar photovoltaic in its monthly Short-Term Energy Outlook
In the most recent addition of its Short-Term Energy Outlook (STEO), the U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) included forecasts for small-scale solar photovoltaic (PV) capacity and electric generation.
The forecast predicts that small-scale solar PV capacity will increase from 14.3 gigawatts (GW) at the end
of April to 21.9 GW at the end of 2018. This includes 13.7 GW of residential solar and 8.2 of commercial
and industrial.
Residential small-scale solar accounted for over half of capacity in 2016, even though residential systems are typically smaller than commercial or industrial ones. The commercials sector made up 36 percent of total small-scale solar capacity, while the industrial sector made up 8 percent.
Annual generation is forecast to increase from 19,467 gigawatthours (GWh) in 2016 to 25,400 GWh this year and 32,900 GWh in 2018.
Residential small-scale solar PV capacity has increased by 43 percent since 2015. Commercial and industrial small-scale PV capacity grew by 26 percent last year.
Generation from small-scale solar PV is expected to grow by 40 percent in 2017 compared to 2016 levels. Generation from commercial and industrial systems is predicted to increase by 22 percent this year.
EIA defines small-scale systems as having a generating capacity of less than one megawatt (MW). Predictions are based on reported alternating current (AC) capacity.
