Nuclear expansion expected to slow in the coming years, IAEA report says

While nuclear power’s global potential up to the year 2050 remains high, its expansion is expected to slow in the coming years, according to a recently published report on energy and electricity projections by the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA).

The report, titled Energy, Electricity and Nuclear Power Estimates for the Period up to 2050, also stated that interest in nuclear power remains particularly strong within the developing world. However, compared to the prior year’s projections for 2030, estimates were reduced by 45 gigawatts (GW) in both high and low cases.

In the short term, the impact of renewable energy sources on electricity prices, the low price of natural gas and country-specific nuclear policies following the 2011 Fukushima Daiichi Nuclear Power Plant disaster are all expect to affect nuclear growth prospects, the report said.

Compared to 2016 levels, high projections indicate an increase by 42 percent in 2030, by 83 percent in 2040 and by 123 percent in 2050. Yet, the low projections indicate a decline in capacity by 12 percent in 2030, 15 percent in 2040 before rebounding to current levels by 2050.

According to the IAEA, the wide range of the projections is also due to the considerable number of reactors scheduled to be retired by approximately 2030 and beyond, particularly in North America and Europe, along with whether or not new nuclear capacity would be built to replace retired reactors.