Unplanned global oil supply disruptions fall to lowest level since January 2012, EIA report says
Unplanned global supply disruptions fell to 1.6 million barrels per day (b/d) in September, the lowest level since January 2012, according to a recent Short Term Energy Outlook (STEO) report from the U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA).
The report said that over the past six months, unplanned oil supply disruptions have fallen by more than 1 million b/d, as outages in Libya, Nigeria, and Iraq abated. Further, Canada’s disrupted supplies, which reached their peak of 425,000 b/d in April 2017, returned to production in August.
EIA said the duration of any supply outage mainly depended on the cause of the disruption. While outages caused by natural disasters, labor strikes or technical failures can end within weeks, the report noted that disruptions tied to political disputes or conflicts often last for years.
Since the fall of the Gaddafi regime in 2011, Libya has been involved in a number of armed conflicts which have resulted in rival armed factions blockading pipelines and export terminals intermittently. Despite those issues, production rose to more than 1 million b/d in July and unplanned outages averaged 295,000 b/d, the lowest since May 2013.
EIA also observed a marked drop in disruptions in Nigeria, falling from an average of 370,000 b/d to 200,000 b/d as a result of the Trans Forcados crude oil pipeline resuming production following a 16-month outage. However, the report stated that outages have fluctuated since the summer due to repeated flare-ups of disputes between rival groups and pipeline blockades.
A pipeline explosion near the city of Kirkuk and the loss of production at the Rumalia oil field led to an increase in disruptions in early 2017 in Iraq. Since that time, disruptions fell to an average of 50,000 b/d throughout the month of September. Yet, the oil supply emanating from the Kirkuk oil field remains uncertain following an offensive by Iraqi security forces in response to an independence referendum held by the autonomous Kurdistan Regional Government.
For the United States, Hurricane Harvey led to disruptions averaging 186,000 b/d throughout August. However, the disruptions have since lessened to an average of 53,000 b/d in September.
