EIA projects non-OECD nations will lead in nuclear capacity growth
EIA’s International Energy Outlook 2017 (IEO2017) forecasts that global nuclear capacity will increase at an average annual rate of 1.6 percent from 2016 through 2040, led primarily by countries outside of the Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development (OECD).
China will continue leading world nuclear growth, followed by India, EIA predicts. This growth will offset decreases in nuclear capacity in the United States, Japan, and Europe.
Growth in population, gross domestic product, and energy demand is expected to drive nuclear capacity growth in non-OECD countries. Electricity demand will grow more in China, India, and the Middle East than in the United States, Europe, and Japan.
China currently operates 38 nuclear reactors with a total capacity of 33 gigawatts (GW). The country is currently constructing 19 new reactors with a total capacity of 19.9 GW. China plans to install 58 GW of new nuclear capacity in total, estimated for completion by 2024. By 2032, China will likely surpass the United States as the country with the greatest amount of nuclear electricity generating capacity by 2032.
The United States currently has 99 reactors with a total capacity of 100 GW, but U.S. nuclear capacity is projected to decline to 88.2 GW by 2040. Several plants have announced plans to retire prior to their scheduled license expirations. Two new reactors, Voglte Units 3 and 4, are currently under construction in the United States.
