Coal to retake lead as most common fuel if winter temperatures hit predicted lows
The U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) recently published data showing that coal may overtake natural gas this winter as the most common electricity-generating fuel.
Coal’s share of total U.S. electricity generation has been on the decline for several months, compared with 2015 figures, but analysts are currently suggesting that extrapolations of temperatures and market conditions during December, January, and February are predicting slowly growing figures for coal and, conversely, year-over-year declines in natural gas.
In April 2015, natural gas-fired electricity generation surpassed coal-fired generation for the first time, benefitting from low market prices for natural gas, ample fuel supplies, and a mild winter. Natural gas-fired generation supplied 36 percent of total electricity generation in the United States during the first half of 2016, compared with 31 percent for coal, and reached record levels during the summer months.
In recent weeks, new data has shown that natural gas and coal have reached nearly identical prices. EIA’s Short-Term Energy Outlook for November is predicting that natural gas prices will continue to inch upwards, however, reaching a predicted seasonal peak of almost $31/MWh in February. This forecast relies on accurate weather estimates, however, and should the United States see warmer temperatures than meteorologists are currently expecting, natural gas prices would remain lower.
